There is a common progression of a program (or head coach) on the rise. Here is the run-on sentence explaining that progression, which I call the “Synergistic Trend.”
A season of overachievement above the team’s talent level leads to access to better players which leads to better recruiting which leads to higher team talent level which leads to better performance on the field which leads to access to better players which leads to better recruiting which leads to higher team talent level which leads to better performance on the field and on and on.
Therefore, the most important characteristic in a head coach is the ability to consistently overachieve above the talent level of his players.
When a coach has an Elite Season, we see the next recruiting class increases 13.3% over the average of the previous 5 years. Typically, when we don’t see an increase it’s because the coach left for another school.
When a program becomes an Elite Program, the average talent upgrade of the roster is 28% over the next 3 years. Considering that the greatest increase ever for a coach over his career is 19.1% (Kyle Wittingham), those are staggering increases. Eliteness is real and measurable.
Barring a coaching change, scandal, or lack of commitment from the administration, a program is typically stable as an Elite for at least a decade after their 3rd Elite Season in 5 years. This is the where the program is running downhill to have an Elite Season (36.8% chance) while non-EPs are running uphill (5.7% chance).
What happens when a team loses Elite Program status? In short, recruits stop believing in the program. On average, a program’s talent level will be reduced by 49% over the next 5 years. That is a massive decline that often indicates there will need to be a full program rebuild. This data supports the idea that hiring a coach that is “the guy after THE GUY” is often the most important decision a program will make over the next two decades.
