The most wonderful attribute of college football is its propensity to create hope on a yearly basis. Fans, coaches, students, administration members, and players, always incorporate a narrative of why next year might be their year. And, as much as Eliteness matters and as much as the same Elite Programs seem to dominate every year, anything can happen on the field on any given Saturday.
Did any expert have TCU in the National Championship Game? Who had Tulane beating the Big 12 Champ Kansas St. and then beating USC in the Cotton Bowl? Who had Tennessee beating Alabama and Clemson to have their first Elite Season in 16 years? Very few outside of their own fandoms.
On the flipside, for every hope-fulfilling triumph by a Cinderella, there is a year of disappointment for a favorite. Alabama, Clemson, Notre Dame, and Texas A&M failed to contend for a national championship in 2022 and have the offseason task of figuring out what needs to be done to get better.
The Georgia Bulldogs don’t have any such problem. They have this college football thing figured out. They became the current college football measuring stick in 2022 by winning their 2nd straight National Championship. They are 4-1 vs. Elite Teams in the past 3 years, which is the best record vs. Elite Teams over that time period. Georgia has had an Elite Season in 4 of the 7 years under Kirby Smart and have played for the Natty 3 times. However, after having being ranked #1 in the WRC the past two years, they will be dropping to #2 and ceding that #1 spot to Alabama for the upcoming 2023 season.
Here are the rest of the major developments in Eliteness from the 2022 season:
Tulane had its first Elite Season since 1939 in 2022 and Willie Fritz was the Coach of the Year in the HCR. Nobody really expects an encore in 2023, but wouldn’t that be interesting if they did? Ole Miss travels to play at Tulane in week 2 next year, and an upset there might be the season’s first true “wow” moment.
TCU parlayed their Natty runner up status into their best recruiting class in 7 years. Unfortunately, Garrett Riley, the OC who received much of the credit for their ascension, was poached by Clemson in the offseason. Still, if TCU can get by Deion and Colorado in week 1, they have a favorable schedule until November when they play both Texas and OU. Proving they can win on the biggest stage in 2022 means we will see them as an Elite for 2023-2024. Therefore, unlike back in 2014, they have a shot of getting in the playoff over teams with a similar record from other major conferences.
Texas, USC, and Michigan State have to have Elite Seasons in 2023 or they will no longer be considered Elite Programs in our mind. Of course, the panic move from two of these programs has already been made. Texas and USC will be abandoning their conferences for the SEC and Big 10 respectively. Will this elevate them like it did FSU in the 90s ACC, or bury them like it did Miami in the 00s ACC?
Speaking of being buried, Auburn and Florida are Elite Programs that feel like they are at a similar crossroads. Can one of these teams be next year’s Tennessee? LSU would say no and that they are the most likely SEC team to crash the Bama-Georgia party at the top of the SEC. LSU moved into the top 4 of the WRC for 2023, so the talent level is not an issue.
Tennessee was the biggest upward mover in the top 20 of the WRC from 2022 to 2023. They moved up 4 spots from #14 to #10 for 2023. Texas A&M came back to earth with their 2023 recruiting class, but their previous 4 classes were gangbusters and have now come of age. A&M sits behind only Bama and Georgia at #3 in the WRC.
The SEC was again the strongest conference by a wide margin in 2022. The Synergistic Trend says this attracts more talent to the conference. The SEC was already way ahead of the other conferences in recruiting, but they have stretched the gap to the widest point since recruiting rankings began in 2001. Is this too much talent concentrated in one conference?
In 2023, Alabama will spend the year as an Elite Program for a record 69th season. This passes Michigan for #1 all time at 68. And no, Michigan is still not an Elite Program for 2023 and won’t be keeping pace here. We’ve seen that Michigan can’t beat the out-of-conference Elites they are matched up with in the CFP, even when it’s an underdog TCU team they’re supposed to blow out. We’re going to need to see Michigan get back to the Elite level one more time in 2023.
Michigan has great potential to break the glass ceiling. 2023’s top 5 schools for a head coaching candidate to have immediate and sustained success are 5. Michigan, 4. Notre Dame, 3. Oklahoma, 2. Ohio St., and 1. Alabama. Therefore, the 2023 season is going to be a massively important season for Jim Harbaugh, Marcus Freeman, and Brent Venables.
Brent Venables was the lowest rated coach in the HCR for 2022. Another former Clemson coordinator, Billy Napier, was second worst last year. Former Clemson coordinators, Jeff Scott and Tony Elliot ranked in the bottom 25 as well. Another former Clemson OC, Chad Morris, was relegated to high school ball last year. I think we can put to bed the narrative that “Dabo’s coordinators are the real brains of the operation.”
Maybe there is a coach that can do better than Dabo could though. The top head coach in “Philosophy, Scheme, and Development” in 2022 was Jonathon Smith at Oregon St. I wonder what he can do with his new reclamation project and former 5-Star QB, D.J. Uiagelelei?
Still, the career HCR standings show a top 4 nobody would argue with: 1. Saban, 2. Kirby, 3. Day 4. Dabo. Jim Harbaugh, Josh Heupel, Luke Fickel, Hugh Freeze, and Brian Kelly are the most likely candidates to usurp these 4 in the near future. But then again, maybe there’s another coach out there who’s about to completely change the power structure of college football. Maybe he’s at the school you’re a fan of right now. Anything can happen in college football, and being the religion that it is, hope and faith reward someone every year.
